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      aro757


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      Post #71933, posted on 03-10-2019 GMT-5 hours    
      Sadly, it looks like the Boeing 737 Max anti-stall system has caused another crash. An Ethiopian Airlines Boeing 737 Max8 crashed shortly after takeoff killing all 157 onboard. Early data shows the plane doing abrupt climbs and descents, meaning that the pilots were fighting to maintain control of the airplane: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremybogaisky/2019/03/10/ethiopian-airlines-crash-puts-spotlight-again-on-boeing-737-max

      I know I'm speculating, but all signs sure point to the anti-stall system. Way too many similarities to the Lion Air crash.

      RIP everyone.

      Regards,

      ahmed

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      Jennings


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      Post #71934, posted on 03-10-2019 GMT-5 hours    
      We absolutely cannot know anything like what caused this crash at this point, and speculation is utterly useless.

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      Metropolitan2


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      Post #71936, posted on 03-10-2019 GMT-5 hours    
      Quote
      aro757 :
      Sadly, it looks like the Boeing 737 Max anti-stall system has caused another crash. An Ethiopian Airlines Boeing 737 Max8 crashed shortly after takeoff killing all 157 onboard. Early data shows the plane doing abrupt climbs and descents, meaning that the pilots were fighting to maintain control of the airplane: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremybogaisky/2019/03/10/ethiopian-airlines-crash-puts-spotlight-again-on-boeing-737-max

      I know I'm speculating, but all signs sure point to the anti-stall system. Way too many similarities to the Lion Air crash.

      RIP everyone.


      =======

      I completely agree, Ahmed!!
      RIP anybody on board this fatal crash, poor souls😪
      - Harry B.

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      NX28388


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      Post #71939, posted on 03-10-2019 GMT-5 hours    
      I agree that it's way too early to speculate on just what the cause is. I know there's an innate urge we all have to figure out what the problem is and get it solved yesterday (especially given the concern about this happening in a new subtype that's in wide use), but 20+ years of reading accident reports has taught me time and again the value of the investigation process.

      To be blunt, only a handful of people on this board have the inside knowledge to make an educated guess - and at this point, all it would be is an educated guess. All that the rest of us can do is contribute armchair investigation from a far remove. Let's please let the professionals do their jobs.

      Jodie Peeler

      In 1924 Wien was Alaska's first airline. In 1980 it still is.

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      Post #71941, posted on 03-10-2019 GMT-5 hours    
      Of course it's all speculation. That's exactly what I said in my post above, but 2 accidents about 4 months apart with very similar scenarios is too hard to ignore. I think the FAA should ground all 737MAXs until the cause has been determined and a fix rolled out, before another ~200 people lose their lives.

      Regards,

      ahmed

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      gebbw


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      Post #71943, posted on 03-11-2019 GMT-5 hours    
      Very tragic, condolences to all the families. And quite troubling that another max 8 is involved in such short time. I have read a report that CAAC (China) ordered Chinese airlines to suspend operations of the type.

      George
      Auckland
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      the PRIDEbird


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      Post #71944, posted on 03-11-2019 GMT-5 hours    
      5 Germans were on board as well... 😢 😢 😢 😢 😢

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      gege320


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      Post #71950, posted on 03-11-2019 GMT-5 hours    
      Quote
      gebbw :
      Very tragic, condolences to all the families. And quite troubling that another max 8 is involved in such short time. I have read a report that CAAC (China) ordered Chinese airlines to suspend operations of the type.



      https://www.facebook.com/1580734692199543/posts/2379156432357361/

      Gerard

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      BruinPrideBand


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      Post #71962, posted on 03-12-2019 GMT-5 hours    
      Rest in Peace to all those on board and my thoughts are with their family and friends and the investigators working diligently to determine the cause of the crash.

      At this point I believe that most nations with the Max have grounded them and many have banned them from their airspace as is their right under the Chicago Convention.

      Also the general public and politicians (at least here in the U.S.) letting their opinions known.

      Chris

      "Sorry Goose... But it's time to buzz the Tower."

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      the PRIDEbird


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      Post #71965, posted on 03-12-2019 GMT-5 hours    
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      Jennings :
      We absolutely cannot know anything like what caused this crash at this point, and speculation is utterly useless.



      Anyway Germany has blocked its airspace for the Max 8 today.
      TUI has had planned to operate the Max 8 from Germany originally in the beginning of April.

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      sky303


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      Post #71974, posted on 03-13-2019 GMT-5 hours    
      Well, it finally happened in the USA

      FAA Statement

      Rob
      KATL
      Captain, you'll be in charge of this flight
      when I unhook the towbar!

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      Jennings


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      Post #71979, posted on 03-13-2019 GMT-5 hours    
      This entire thing is much more a public relations failure than a safety of flight issue. I donít believe there is anything fundamentally wrong with the 737 MAX. To be sure, Boeing seems to have fallen down on providing adequate information in the manuals and training programs, but itís also a FACT that Lion Air, and to some extent Ethiopian are exceedingly unsafe airlines (look at their crash records). Garuda is the only Indonesia airline that is permitted to fly into EU airspace because they are so unsafe.

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      BruinPrideBand


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      Post #71981, posted on 03-13-2019 GMT-5 hours    
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      Jennings :
      This entire thing is much more a public relations failure than a safety of flight issue. I donít believe there is anything fundamentally wrong with the 737 MAX. To be sure, Boeing seems to have fallen down on providing adequate information in the manuals and training programs, but itís also a FACT that Lion Air, and to some extent Ethiopian are exceedingly unsafe airlines (look at their crash records). Garuda is the only Indonesia airline that is permitted to fly into EU airspace because they are so unsafe.



      I could go on and on and on about all this. Now I'm reading that Boeing is an evil empire and the FAA doesn't care about safety and only about keeping Boeing happy. All said by individuals who have no idea what they are talking about.

      Chris

      "Sorry Goose... But it's time to buzz the Tower."

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      TWA Brat


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      Post #71982, posted on 03-13-2019 GMT-5 hours    
      Why is it that a thorough system safety analysis occurs only after an accident or series of accidents. This reminds me of the Lauda Air 767 inflight reverser actuation disaster. A subsequent in-depth analysis of the reverser systems uncovered some flaws in the redundancy of the design and corrections were made. I can think of other examples.
      It seems to me that any system that takes away the control of the airplane from the flight crew should have had intense scrutiny from experts from engineering, flight crew ops, manufacturing, etc. Did Boeing convene a safety board before the MCAS design was finalized? Or was the system simply a rushed band-aid to satisfy the Certification agencies?
      I suspect we will know the answer soon.

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      gege320


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      Post #72000, posted on 03-15-2019 GMT-5 hours    
      More:

      https://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-fi-boeing-max-design-20190315-story.html?fbclid=IwAR3sWzUa5U0RRqNYqxrYj92o9nhfiHM9MVYWswxtDHGiMqGi-F4WfIX_UCQ

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      the PRIDEbird


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      Post #72002, posted on 03-15-2019 GMT-5 hours    
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      TWA Brat :
      Why is it that a thorough system safety analysis occurs only after an accident or series of accidents. This reminds me of the Lauda Air 767 inflight reverser actuation disaster. A subsequent in-depth analysis of the reverser systems uncovered some flaws in the redundancy of the design and corrections were made. I can think of other examples.
      It seems to me that any system that takes away the control of the airplane from the flight crew should have had intense scrutiny from experts from engineering, flight crew ops, manufacturing, etc. Did Boeing convene a safety board before the MCAS design was finalized? Or was the system simply a rushed band-aid to satisfy the Certification agencies?
      I suspect we will know the answer soon.



      Maybe because no one thinks about or anticipates such problems before.
      As long as a no problem occurred is everything well or seems to be well.
      A product can only be revised and improved if something is wrong.
      In case of the Lauda Air disaster hundreds of 767 flew thousands of hours over the years and nothing happened. Who should suspect something can get wrong?
      Probably all test at Boeing's facility were without any negative results before. No reason to be concerned.

      The same thing with the DC-10 in the 70ies and the problem with the bulk cargo hatch locking system. There were no problems before. Until 2 accidents, one with American Airlines and the other one Turkish Airlines crash near Paris. And later the cracks in the engine attachment. No incidents until the Chicago crash. The result: All DC-10s were grounded worldwide. And the DC-10 was a great plane! But the medias called the DC-10 as unsafe per sť.

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      Post #72003, posted on 03-15-2019 GMT-5 hours    
      Quote
      Jennings :
      This entire thing is much more a public relations failure than a safety of flight issue. I donít believe there is anything fundamentally wrong with the 737 MAX. To be sure, Boeing seems to have fallen down on providing adequate information in the manuals and training programs, but itís also a FACT that Lion Air, and to some extent Ethiopian are exceedingly unsafe airlines (look at their crash records). Garuda is the only Indonesia airline that is permitted to fly into EU airspace because they are so unsafe.



      ET lost 2 737 classics. A 732 in 1988 (airframe was less than a year old), and a 734 in 2015 while
      operating for Asky. Not sure what the crewing arrangement was. Those, and the 762 lost to a water
      landing caused by hijack in 1996 are the only hull losses suffered by the airline prior to the MAX crash.
      So tell me..how are they exceedingly unsafe?

      Alan Aronoff
      CYUL

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      Ken Miller


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      Post #72010, posted on 03-16-2019 GMT-5 hours    
      I realize I'm going off topic but want to address Pridebirds DC10 comments. The Turkish cargo door crash wasn't completely out of the blue. There had been a prior American Airlines? incident where the door blew out and plane depressurized in flight. In Chicago American devised their own procedures (conflicting with manufacturer recommendations?) that led to the engine loss. In Sioux City the uncontained failure of #2 engine led to loss of all 3? hydraulic systems. Unacceptable/bad design and certification that should not have been allowed.
      In the case of the DC10 the problems leading to crashes had or should have been foreseen.

      Ken

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      Post #72011, posted on 03-16-2019 GMT-5 hours    
      Greg Feith (former NTSB investigator and fellow Embry-Riddle graduate) posted this on his Facebook feed:

      "There are many timelines that have been circulating as to when the ďissue(s)Ē with the Ethiopian airplane began. Some timelines indicate the issue occurred shortly after takeoff. If this is the case, and the airplane was still configured for takeoff (flaps/slats) deployed and the pilot was hand flying, the MCAS would not have been active. If the pilot engaged the autopilot shortly after takeoff, the MCAS would not have been active.

      The airplane must be flown manually and the flaps must be retracted for the system to be active. Thus, it will be important to determine the configuration change schedule that the crew executed during the climb out to see if the MCAS was active, and whether or not it was responsible for the initiating events."

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      russmb


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      Post #72015, posted on 03-16-2019 GMT-5 hours    
      Alan Said:

      ET lost 2 737 classics. A 732 in 1988 (airframe was less than a year old), and a 734 in 2015 while
      operating for Asky. Not sure what the crewing arrangement was. Those, and the 762 lost to a water
      landing caused by hijack in 1996 are the only hull losses suffered by the airline prior to the MAX crash.
      So tell me..how are they exceedingly unsafe?

      Don't forget the Ethiopian 737-800 that crashed very shortly after take-off (sound familiar?) from Beirut, into the eastern Med. If I remember correctly, one of the issues identified as a major contributing factor was extreme crew fatigue, poor cockpit communications (aka CRM, or Crew Resource Management).

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      Post #72016, posted on 03-16-2019 GMT-5 hours    
      So true. I had overlooked that one.

      Alan Aronoff
      CYUL

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      RAA188


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      Post #72028, posted on 03-18-2019 GMT-5 hours    
      It's been quite validly asked here, and in innumerable fora elsewhere through not just years but decades and even across centuries: "Why did *this* have to happen, before..."

      The answer is simple. In a word: Hubris. In modern terms, "Tombstone Engineering."

      In the ancient times that were the 1980s of my engineering & design youth, we were taught--through direct and sometimes grossly and all too often quite grisly detail--to NEVER EQUATE RELIABILITY WITH SAFETY. Just because a system has worked every day for fifty years without an injury doesn't mean it will continue to do so tomorrow. This axiom has held true for millenia.

      FULL STOP.

      I'll spare everyone the minutiae of the topic, but in light of the MAX in particular, consider this: A defect in a single component of a prior version of the 737 killed a couple hundred people, destroyed two airframes, and scared (and jeopardized) the bejeezus out of many more.

      Nevermind that the types had flown tens of millions of hours, yada yada...Such things "just couldn't happen." And yet, despite Boeing and Parker Hannifin's objectons, they did just that.

      People died. Works of engineering art were destroyed. All over the failure of a single part that stopped moving a few *hundred thousanths* of an inch--in micron territory--in a failure mode that "just couldn't happen."

      As students we had hardware and software failure modes beaten into us through scenarios that were "impossible." People augered into the ground aboard airliners. People were quite literally fried to death by radiation beams meant to save lives. Rockets for peace and war exploded seemingly at random. Power and chemical plants rendered swaths of the Earth uninhabitable for millenia. Miracle drugs killed more lives than they were meant to save. On and on.

      I've no doubt the answers to these tragedies will be found, nor that they will be "fixed" by some means. Even our beloved Comet was an example of learning by trial and error--and ultimately triumph.

      Life is uncertain. No one gets out unscathed. But never lose sight of this: With each innovation comes risk, acceptance, and understanding. We rest on the shoulders of giants; whatever sacrifices they may have made, their burdens we will continue to bear, in some form or fashion.

      The MAX is not a failure--no moreso than the Fokker Tri-Motor, A320, the Comet, or any other airliner. It is a stepping stone. So many more will follow.

      We can armchair captain (or engineer...) all we want, but ultimately the truth is elegant in its simplicity: That we as humans try to envision--and master--our world in the simplest terms possible, and all too often inadvertently render it incomprehensibly complex. Therein lies both our failing, and our greatest opportunity to excel at all we choose to accomplish.

      A sobering thought as I prepare to board an E175 to KPDX in the morning.

      With utmost respect to those who have paid the price for our inadequate efforts, and Godspeed to all those whose lives are enriched by that price already paid.

      FWIW

      Rob in AK

      Look, I really don't care...Just get me out of Seattle and home to Alaska. I'll find my house from there.

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      RAA188


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      Post #72032, posted on 03-19-2019 GMT-5 hours    
      Quote
      the PRIDEbird :
      Quote
      TWA Brat :
      Why is it that a thorough system safety analysis occurs only after an accident or series of accidents. [...]



      Maybe because no one thinks about or anticipates such problems before.


      Or because they simply can't.

      Knowing folks who labored for years on the MAX, I can say that the anslyses performed were excruciatingly thorough.

      Trouble is, as I posted above, in trying to make life *appear* as simple as possible, it was made excessively complex--and there's the rub.

      Google a professor named Charles Perrow and his most famous example of a system failure mode called a "normal accident" and you'll start to see where this is all headed...

      Rob in AK

      Look, I really don't care...Just get me out of Seattle and home to Alaska. I'll find my house from there.

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      Post #72033, posted on 03-19-2019 GMT-5 hours    
      I'm not an engineer... But I encounter accident investigation enough to know that it is impossible to consider every eventuality during design and flight testing. The Comet windows, the DC-10 cargo door, the 787 batteries. The a330 had a series of nose-down upset moments. And those are just a few notable ones. That is why organizations such as the NTSB exists, to determine why something has happened and to hopefully prevent it from happening again.

      Chris

      "Sorry Goose... But it's time to buzz the Tower."

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      Post #72034, posted on 03-19-2019 GMT-5 hours    
      As I have watched the 737 MAX story play out, I have heard uncanny echoes of the DC-10 fiasco in the 1970s: a basically good aircraft, hindered by some things that should have been caught or prevented but weren't, up against intense competition from other manufacturers' offerings, some questions about oversight by regulating authorities, and high-profile fatal accidents that capture the public imagination and prompt uncertainty among the traveling public (and whose causes required extensive detective work), and the prospect that no matter how safely the aircraft performs 99.999% of the rest of the time, people will forever think of it as That Airplane, forever linked with the DC-10 and Electra and other good aircraft that got bit by the unexpected. (By the way, as much as we regard the Boeing 727 and Douglas DC-6 as synonymous with reliable and safe, anybody recall that the 727 had some serious teething problems and the DC-6 had a nasty habit early on of catching on fire?)

      What we do now with technology and automation is truly amazing. But we take it for granted, all while asking it to do more and more for us, and we forget that the more complicated you make a system and the more you ask technology to do for you, the more possibilities you open for something going wrong, or taking you by surprise because you've become so reliant on that complicated technology working. And when it fails, we're surprised because we take it for granted. To me, the wonder is it doesn't fail more often.

      Jodie Peeler

      In 1924 Wien was Alaska's first airline. In 1980 it still is.

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      Post #72037, posted on 03-20-2019 GMT-5 hours    
      (This comment is in NO way directed toward anyone on this site).

      One thing is for sure. I had no idea there were so many aviation experts around until this crash. People not associated with the investigation--already know what happened, who was to blame, and what to do about it. /sarcasm

      The board over on airliners.net has devolved into pure drivel and ignorant conjecture. Blaming Boeing. Blaming the FAA. Blaming POTUS Trump. Blaming Ethiopia for not following Annex 13. I read one comment about how Boeing should be indicted for depraved heart murder for not grounding the MAX.

      I guess the days of allowing the investigators to do their work and then to recommend changes are over.

      Chris

      "Sorry Goose... But it's time to buzz the Tower."

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      Post #72038, posted on 03-20-2019 GMT-5 hours    
      Way too many similarities for people not to speculate and put 2 and 2 together. It's called logic!

      Regards,

      ahmed